More milk production in 2023

U.S. milk output is continuing to grow but at a slower pace compared to what was expected one month ago. U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook Board Chairman Mark Jekanowski said his group has knocked 300 million pounds off this year’s milk production forecast based on smaller cow inventories. USDA is projecting next year’s milk output at 228.8 billion pounds. That’s up 1% from this year. “Dairy product demand is relatively strong, especially for cheese,” Jekanowski said.

Consumer dairy prices rise
Retail dairy prices are on the rise. According to CoBank, August butter prices were nearly 25% higher year over year. Milk prices at the supermarket are up 17%, and yogurt is 16.1% higher. Ice cream prices rose 14%, and cheese is up 13.5%. The prices for all food consumed at home were up 13.5%.

Record farm income
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute expects U.S. net farm income to reach a record $148 billion this year. That’s twice the level seen just five years ago. FAPRI said the high commodity prices will buffer the largest ever year-to-year increase in farm production costs.

Ag economy barometer gets boost in August
Farmer sentiment increased slightly in the August Ag Economy Barometer. According to the survey presented by Purdue University and the CME Group, farmers were less worried about their farm’s financial situation. Center for Commercial Agriculture Director Jim Mintert said commodity prices improved from mid-July to mid-August. Since then, there has been some weakness in prices. Mintert said there are still concerns about what inflation could bring to the farm in 2023. “People are uneasy when considering what margins will look like going into 2023,” Mintert said. “We asked more specifically about inflation. More producers in this survey are expecting a higher rate of inflation than previously.”

The calm before the real storm
Global strategist Jacob Shapiro kicked off the Next Five Years executive conference, saying it will be a time of great volatility. That is not necessarily a bad thing. “I’m actually pretty optimistic about the next five years,” Shapiro said. “When you get beyond the next five years, I get a little bit scared.” While there is opportunity in the short-term for U.S. agriculture, it is not coming from China. Shapiro sees more prospects from in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America. “It looks like the U.S. and China are on a collision course,” Shapiro said. “When you look at previous eras where you have rising and falling powers like we have right now, it usually ends in some kind of cataclysmic conflict. The last true multipolar era was the 1890s that ended with World War I and World War II; unfortunately, that is the trajectory we’re on.” Shapiro said the next two years will be “the time to buckle your seatbelts” for higher energy prices.

Putin, Xi collaborate
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for a face-to-face meeting in Uzbekistan. In addition to security issues, the two leaders agreed to cooperate more on trade and agriculture.

USDA invests in climate-smart projects
USDA is investing up to $2.8 billion for 70 projects in the first Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities funding pool. Climate Scaling Mechanisms for Agriculture’s Regenerative Transformation projects include a market-based program with Truterra to increase adoption of climate-smart farming practices to produce grain and dairy products. Another example would be a Dairy Farmers of America pilot project using the cooperative business model to capture the financial benefits at the farm level. South Dakota State University received $80 million to create marketing opportunities for bison and beef producers who use climate smart grazing and land management practices.

CHS shares profits with owner-members
CHS plans to return $1 billion in cash patronage and equity redemptions in calendar year 2023. This will be the largest cash distribution in CHS history.

DATCP budget request
The Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection has released its budget request for the 2023-25 biennial budget. The list includes $2 million per year for county conservation funding, $1 million per year for the Wisconsin Initiative for Agricultural Exports, $200,000 per year for the Dairy Processor Grant Program and $100,000 per year for the Farmer Mental Health Assistance Program.

Northeast organic dairies find new markets
Nearly 90 organic dairy farms in the northeastern United States received termination notices last year from Horizon Organic. Sixty of those farms have joined Organic Valley and eight have joined Stonyfield. Thirteen dairy farms left the business and at least one shifted to a conventional milk market.

Digital tickets available for WDE
World Dairy Expo is introducing new digital admission passes. The digital tickets can be purchased before Expo. WDE General Manager Laura Herschleb said this is a move toward efficiency. “Expo recognizes that attendees only have so much time to spend at the event and they want that time spent on the grounds not waiting in line,” Herschleb said. WDE will be held Oct. 2-7.

Leopold Conservation Award to be presented this fall
The finalists have been selected for the Wisconsin Leopold Conservation Award. The $10,000 award is presented each year by the Sand Country Foundation, American Farmland Trust, Wisconsin Farm Bureau and Dairy Farmers of Wisconsin. Full Circle Farm, of Seymour, Wisconsin, has nearly all of its 240 acres in pasture, building soil organic matter while sequestering carbon. Joe Hovel, of Conover, Wisconsin, is the president and founder of Partners in Forestry Landowners Cooperative and works to protect ecologically important habitat. Noll’s Dairy Farm, of Alma, Wisconsin, restored and manages an ecologically rare dry bluff prairie and practice conservation on their farm. Tomandl Farms, of Medford, Wisconsin, hosts pasture walks at their three dairy farms where they highlight the benefits of conservation and rotational grazing. The award will be presented in November.

WFBF finalists named
The Wisconsin Farm Bureau has named four finalists for its Outstanding Agriculture Professional Award. The finalists include Christa Hoffman of Shawano County, who is a business development administrator for URUS. Amy Silver of Green County is an agricultural lender at State Bank of Cross Plains. Julie Sweney of Dodge County is director of communications and marketing for FarmFirst Dairy Cooperative. Julie Wadzinski of Barron County is a farm operations instructor at Northwoods Technical College. This award recognizes agricultural individuals who have not received most of their income from a farm in the past three years. The award will be presented at the WFBF annual meeting in December.

Trivia challenge
Grilled cheese is the most popular cheese recipe in the United States. That answers our last trivia question. For this week’s trivia, who invented chocolate milk? We will have the answer in the next edition of Dairy Star.

  Don Wick is owner/broadcaster for the Red River Farm Network, based in Grand Forks, North Dakota. Wick has been recognized as the National Farm Broadcaster of the Year and served as president of the National Association of Farm Broadcasting. Don and his wife, Kolleen, have two adult sons, Tony and Sam, and five grandchildren, Aiden, Piper, Adrienne, Aurora and Sterling.